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Brian Burnham
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We can all hear the buzz of Web 2.0, as it storms upon us. Fortunately, we’ve got the experience of a tech bubble behind us, and this time we promise to be good, right? Well, sort of. The truth is that there is something intoxicating about tech buzz, powerful enough to infect the decision making of the best investor.

That makes it a perfect time to take a look at this pattern, and gather a couple pointers. As near as I can tell, this pattern consists of three cyclical events:

  • a Disruptive Technology emerges. This technology changes behavior and attracts a user base
  • Irrational Exuberance follows. Investors and acquisitions drown the new technology makers with money.
  • finally, a Natural Purge determines the ‘winners’ and a new standard and market leader is established.

So now, what are the keys to becoming a winner? I think this boils down to two keys. First, you must get in quick. As fever grows and knock-offs spawn the value of the technology plummets. Grab the early and original, you’ll need the user base. Next, something more often overlooked (Skype, I’m looking at you) you need a valid business plan. Specifically you must align your businesses cost drivers with realizable cash-flows.

Now, who’s up for an IPO?

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3 Responses to “A Method to the Madness”

  1. MacManX.com » Blogroll Dive: 10/3/05 Says:

    [...] at “Vader” will be bundled with every release as an example of a custom style. Brian quickly analyses the future of Web 2.0. Khaled would like to hear your o [...]

  2. ? Says:

    hey you know an adrian burnham?

  3. Brian Says:

    Nope, but sounds like a good guy…

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